"From the above data, it can be said that the fixed investment near 3000 points is very effective. Statistics show that only five of the more than 400 funds lose money, and the probability of making money is as high as 99.5%, with the highest average increase of 33.94% and the lowest 1 1.74%. According to the annualized rate of return, the average increase is as high as 15%. " -Zeyu Financial Fund Research Center
In fact, this calculation is slightly "tricky". "Profit principle of fixed investment": If the investment starts when the index falls below 3,000 points and ends when the index rises to 3,000 points, the U-shaped smile curve will be completed due to "starting point = ending point", not to mention 99.5%, even the probability of making money will reach 100%. This is just a small case!
"Profit principle of fixed investment"
Interpretation: Fixed investment can be regarded as a total investment composed of countless individual investments. Assume that the same amount is invested in each fixed investment (for example, 1 ,000 yuan per month), because "starting point = end point", the 1 investment income at the starting point is zero, and all other investment income >; 0, the total fixed investment income obtained by addition is > 0.
Risk 1: If the index falls below 3,000 points, can it rise back to 3,000 points in the future?
Xiao Xie can't predict the future, but let the data speak for itself. Statistics show that from1991.12-2017.05, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3,000 points and the time required for it to recover to 3,000 points. The statistics are as follows:
As can be seen from the table, there are 10 rounds of "the index fell below 3000 points and then rose to 3000 points" in history, with the shortest time interval of 1 day and the longest time interval of 1 day; The data also shows that the longer the time interval, the higher the return rate of fixed investment.
Another good news is that with the development of the market, the time required for the Shanghai Composite Index to "fall below 3,000 points and then rise to 3,000 points" may become shorter and shorter. It's not a problem to return to 3000 points, it's just a matter of time.
Fixed investment at 3000 points, leaving with a high probability above 3000 points.
Risk 2: after the fixed investment, the index not only did not fall below 3000 points, but rose all the way?
At this time, it is impossible to complete the "U" smile curve of fixed investment. I can only watch the index rise, and the fund share that the same amount can buy is getting less and less. Finally, draw a "/"-shaped fixed investment straight line. Can you still make money with a 99.5% probability of fixed investment of 3000 points?
Ha ha! Here, Xiao Xie will congratulate you! At this time, the probability of making money is not only 99.5%, but also 100%, okay? !
"/"type fixed investment: the starting point of all single fixed investments is less than the end point, and each investment is profitable, so the total fixed investment added up in the end is also profitable.
The fixed investment under this curve is to open an account every day and watch the income rise. It can't be cooler!
However, the sweeter the investment, the more vigilant it is. Xiao Xie here very seriously tips-"take profit". If you don't pay attention to take profit and let the fixed investment curve reverse from "/"to "",that is "draw water with a sieve"!