The bond market began to drop significantly on November 11th. On November 14th, Japan fell sharply on Monday, and the yield of 1-year government bonds jumped by 1bp (the yield rose and the bond price fell). In recent days, investors who bought bond funds estimated that it was quite painful. Basically, this half-month decline wiped out the gains in the past three months.

The following is the recent analysis

1. The logic of recent bond decline

Last week (November 8 -11), two heavy policies, strong real estate policy and scientific epidemic prevention and control, were introduced

The previous economic expectations were changed

The previous economic expectations were pessimistic

The reason was that the epidemic control was still strict and the real estate policy was still squeezing toothpaste, with no substantial changes. The economic expectation changed from pessimism to optimism

Then the yield of bonds can't be as low as expected before, so

stimulated by two major news, the yield of government bonds began to rise rapidly on Monday for ten years

According to the idea of trading, although the expectation changed from pessimism to optimism

, the reality is still poor, and the reality will not change as quickly as thought

, so it is almost the same to jump up the yield of government bonds. After the jump, it oscillates in a higher range < P > but this is only the investment side, without considering the client side, or the emotional side < P > Bonds are low-risk products, and investors' risk appetite is low < P > When bonds plummet, they are prone to panic.