(a) Define each variable accurately

The difference between financial and macroeconomic viewpoints is mainly caused by different statistical data on which the research is based. The statistical data of different systems often have differences in statistical caliber, and sometimes it is necessary to choose alternative indicators, so every component of total supply and total demand needs to be carefully investigated in the study. For example, so far, we have no monthly or quarterly consumption statistics, but only the total retail sales of social consumer goods. It should be noted that this indicator does not include service consumption. The monthly or quarterly data of fixed assets investment mainly refers to the investment amount of state-owned economy and joint-stock economy, rather than the full caliber. There are differences between customs statistics and balance of payments statistics in import and export data. Both the import and export of the balance of payments are FOB prices, of which the export is based on the statistics of the customs, and the import is obtained by subtracting the freight and insurance premium from the CIF import amount calculated by the customs. In addition, the import and export of the balance of payments also includes some re-export trade without customs and the adjustment of commodity return.

Some ratio data should be used more carefully. For example, it is often said that urban per capita income is 3 12 times that of rural areas. However, because the monetization degree of residents' income in China is not very high and the hidden income of urban residents is relatively large, it is not comprehensive to compare the monetary income of urban and rural residents only. For example, China's Gini coefficient is 0 145, or China's dependence on foreign trade is 60%. All these need to be specified, especially the international comparison cannot be simply made.

(2) Distinguish between stock and flow.

Inventory is hours, and flow is the total amount that occurs in a period of time. The balance of bank deposits is the stock, and the new amount in a certain period is the flow. Asset variables are generally stocks, while income and expenditure, income and expenditure are all flow concepts. It is often said that 10 trillion bank savings deposits have not been used, which is completely wrong. Every year, the national income or gross national product will be fully allocated and used, and there will be no unused savings. What is left in the hands of depositors is creditor's rights, which is the concept of stocks. It can be converted into cash at any time for investment and consumption in the current year, and then converted into traffic. The reason why this change can be carried out without too many restrictions is that some people will increase their savings at the same time.

There are many inappropriate concepts or expressions that should be avoided in the research. For example, the property owned by the rich, which accounts for 10% of the population, accounts for a certain proportion of GDP. This statement is not appropriate, but it can be said to be "equivalent" because these two concepts are stock and flow.

(C) attach great importance to inventory

The previous article has analyzed the macroeconomic effect of inventory increase and its impact on finance. We can understand the situation of effective demand and effective supply by investigating the changes of inventory. In fact, not only the macro inventory index is of great significance, but also the inventory situation of various departments or industries is very critical. For example, industrial production and sales rate, commercial inventory, oil reserve, coal storage in power plants, grain storage and grain storage in farmers are all very important variables in the study.

(D) Pay attention to the expected role

The macro-control of the central bank must effectively handle the role of public expectations. Researchers should be good at combining economic fundamentals with possible expected forms to consider problems. Market supply and demand is not a mechanical relationship, but a human activity, so psychological factors play a role. Usually, asset prices are determined by economic fundamentals. For example, in theory, the stock price should be equal to the ratio of earnings per share to discount rate. However, when the actual stock price is higher than the theoretical value, if market participants expect that the stock price will continue to rise and buy in large quantities, the stock price will not return to the theoretical value, but will deviate more.

In financial markets such as stocks and foreign exchange, the expected impact is sometimes decisive. During the period of 1996- 1998, the stock investment flowing into 29 emerging market economies was $35.7 billion, $25.7 billion and $2.4 billion, respectively, which fluctuated greatly, which verified the famous assertion of the economic historian Gindberg of Massachusetts Institute of Technology: the characteristics of capital flow are panic and fanaticism. The violent fluctuations of financial markets before and after the Asian financial crisis are largely related to the changes in market expectations and the follow-up behavior of investors. When one economy is in crisis, investors expect other economies to be in crisis, so they rush to withdraw a lot of capital, which leads to a sharp drop in financial markets and a sharp depreciation of currency exchange rates in these economies.

Government behavior will have an impact on market expectations. The US government's policy shift between "defending the dollar" and "devaluing the dollar", that is, the so-called "strong dollar" and "weak dollar", is an attempt to dominate market expectations.

(e) Positive and negative impacts.

Any economic behavior, factors and events have both positive and negative effects in the long run. For example, the exchange rate policy is called a "double-edged sword" because the balance of payments has advantages and disadvantages, and the scale and duration are different, and the consequences are quite different.

It is one-sided to look only at the positive or negative aspects. Take export analysis as an example. China's export products are very competitive in the international market. On average, a pair of shoes only costs 2 15 dollars, and a mobile phone only costs 80 dollars, which is a positive side. But at the same time, we need to see the negative side. Cheap export means transferring a large amount of value surplus overseas. For a long time, China has been in a situation of deteriorating terms of trade, while the United States and other countries accuse us of dumping. Taking employment as an example, how to understand the impact of China's huge population and labor resources on the economy is often biased. The most popular saying is "unlimited labor supply" to explain China's employment difficulties and deflation, or to explain that workers' wages cannot be too high. In order to attract foreign investment, some local governments artificially depress workers' wages, resulting in factories not recruiting enough workers. In fact, from another perspective, a large population means huge demand potential and market potential. When conditions are available, "supply will automatically create demand", and the key lies in how to create these conditions.

In short, economic policy is essentially a trade-off between advantages and disadvantages, and it is rarely solved by remedies. Macroeconomic and policy research should accurately judge where the fundamental interests lie, and make a scientific and comprehensive analysis and balance from both positive and negative aspects.

(6) Understand the overall situation as much as possible.

Learn more details in the right framework. One or several statistical data of macroeconomics and finance provided by any country or department cannot be absolutely accurate and detailed enough. Therefore, we should read more newspapers and materials and learn more about the specific situation of the industry. We should always study, summarize, summarize and cross-verify, have the ability of global analysis, and don't generalize in research.

(7) Pay attention to the trend.

This refers to both short-term macroeconomic trends and long-term development trends. The numerical value of macroeconomic indicators is very important, but its overall trend is more important. For example, knowing that the inflation rate is 5%, it is particularly critical to find out whether its development is in an upward trend or a downward trend. Since 1997, the proportion of the employed population absorbed by the secondary industry in the total employed population has been declining, which was 23 17% in that year and 2 1 14% in 2002.

(eight) to study and create new concepts and methods.

The traditional concepts of investment and consumption are very relative. According to the current statistical standards, the recurrent expenditure on education belongs to consumption. But the purpose of education expenditure is to improve people's productivity, which will bring about the expansion of future economic potential and eventually transform it into real productivity, so in this sense, education expenditure can be completely defined as investment. Some economists put forward this view in the 1960s. Therefore, it may be necessary to divide investment into two categories, one is the traditional investment characterized by the formation of tangible assets, and the other is the investment characterized by the formation of intangible assets. How to evaluate R & amp；; D, how to understand the concept of green GDP and domestic progress measurement, MDP), and so on. However, development and innovation are realized on the basis of inheritance. We should calmly analyze all kinds of new methods and theories. For example, the concept of "new economy" needs further clarification and definition.