recently released financial data for January show that RMB deposits increased by 6.87 trillion yuan in January, an increase of 3.5 trillion yuan year-on-year, and the new scale reached a new high in a single month. Among them, household deposits increased by 6.2 trillion yuan, non-financial enterprise deposits decreased by 715.5 billion yuan, fiscal deposits increased by 682.8 billion yuan, and non-banking financial institutions increased by 1.1 trillion yuan.
why do residents' deposits keep increasing? Does "excess deposit" mean "excess savings"? Will "excess savings" spontaneously turn into consumption kinetic energy? These have become the focus of the market.
The scale of resident deposits increased to a new high in January
Zhong Lin Nan, a senior macro analyst of GF Securities, believes that resident deposits increased by 6.2 trillion yuan, which is also a record high in the same period of history. There are three main reasons: First, the total amount of deposits derived from the good start of credit in January this year is high; Data show that RMB loans increased by 4.9 trillion yuan in January, an increase of 922.7 billion yuan year-on-year, setting a record high for credit supply in a single month.
In addition, the payment of wages and bonuses by enterprises before the Spring Festival will bring a large amount of corporate deposits to residents' deposits, which will amplify the increase of residents' deposits. Since 217, as long as there are two factors: "a good start to credit+bonus payment during the Spring Festival" in January, the increase of residents' deposits will be at least 3 trillion yuan.
data show that from 217 to January 222, residents' deposits increased by 3.13 trillion yuan, 867.6 billion yuan, 3.86 trillion yuan, 4.24 trillion yuan, 1.48 trillion yuan and 5.41 trillion yuan respectively. Among them, 218 and 221 are low, only 867.6 billion yuan and 1.48 trillion yuan respectively, both of which are in mid-February, and the bonuses paid by enterprises fall in early February, which mainly affects residents' deposits in February.
Zhong Lin Nan pointed out that the third reason is that residents' willingness to buy houses and their willingness to consume durable goods have not been obviously restored, which has affected the return of deposits from residents' departments to enterprises' departments.
Qin Tai, chief macro analyst of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, believes that from the perspective of deposit structure, the deposits of residents and enterprises increased by 79 billion and 684.5 billion respectively in January, and the total increase scale exceeded the increase of loans in that month, indicating that while loans created deposits, residents' enthusiasm for purchasing wealth management products was still not high, and a large amount of deposits brought by bonuses before the Spring Festival were stranded in the bank table.
the deposits of non-bank financial institutions increased by nearly 1.2 trillion yuan year-on-year, which shows that the recovery of the stock market has rapidly formed a new attraction for the allocation of residents' assets, and it has falsified a market view that the so-called "excess savings", which greatly increased residents' deposits in 222, will spontaneously turn into consumption momentum in 223.
Li Chao, a macro-economic team of Zheshang Securities, pointed out that in January, household deposits and non-bank deposits contributed the most, among which the increase of household deposits was mainly affected by the transfer of corporate deposits to household accounts due to the payment of salaries and benefits by enterprises before the holiday; However, the increase of non-bank deposits is far ahead of the previous years, which is directly related to the stock market. In January this year, the equity market performed strongly, and the customer deposits of securities companies were included in M2 (broad money supply) statistics as non-bank deposits, which pushed the data upward.
Does "excess deposit" mean "excess savings"
The future of the large amount of household deposits in January is becoming a hot topic in the market recently.
First of all, it needs to be clear that "excess deposit" does not mean "excess deposit". Savings and deposit are two different concepts, which can be separated in a credit currency society. From the historical data, the increase in savings does not necessarily correspond to the increase in deposits.
Bian Quanshui, the macro chief analyst of Western Securities, pointed out that residents' deposits increased substantially in 222, but the increase of residents' deposits did not mean residents' savings, and residents' deposits in 222 were greatly affected by the allocation of residents' assets. The new deposits of residents come not only from residents' savings, but also from the sharp drop in housing expenditure and the impact of residents' assets shifting from stock market, funds and wealth management to time deposits. In 222, residents' savings increased by 1.85 trillion yuan compared with 221, which was much lower than the increase of new deposits of residents.
However, "excess deposit" and "excess savings" also have certain inevitable relations. Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, believes that part of "excess deposits" is "excess savings" in the true sense, and residents reduce consumption and increase savings; The other part is the "return of deposits" after the adjustment of asset allocation by residential departments. The reduction of house purchases and the redemption of wealth management products have led to a decline in the proportion of other investments in total assets and an increase in the proportion of bank deposits.
The excess deposits mainly come from the decrease of consumption, the decrease of house purchasing expenditure and the redemption of wealth management products. According to estimates, residents' consumption has decreased and preventive savings have increased, contributing about 1.5 trillion yuan; Residents' expenditure on purchasing houses decreased, contributing about 3 trillion yuan; Financial markets fluctuated and residents' deposits returned, contributing about 2.5 trillion yuan.
where will "excess deposits" and "excess savings" go?
Luo Zhi Heng pointed out that excess deposits have improved residents' spending power, but only part of excess deposits can be used for consumption. Excess deposits, which originated from the decline in housing purchase expenditure and the redemption of wealth management products, belong to the asset allocation behavior of residents and will be reused for housing purchase and other investments in the future.
Although excess savings have provided financial support for the recovery of consumption, residents' awareness of uncertainty and risk has greatly increased in the past three years, and it is difficult to increase their willingness to consume quickly in a short period of time. It takes a process to boost consumption, so we should not expect too much from the reversal of consumption.
The overall consumption trend will usher in a significant recovery this year; Structurally, the elasticity of service consumption is higher than that of commodity consumption. However, due to the growth rate of residents' income, willingness to consume, polarization between the rich and the poor and other factors, consumption may still be below the potential trend level, which requires further efforts from policies to boost it.
Team Li Chao estimates that the excess savings of residents in 22-222 will be 3.98 trillion yuan. It is predicted that the release of residents' savings deposits will flow into the real economy and the capital market in 223. At present, the core of various policies in China's economic field is to focus on * * * and reduce costs for the people's livelihood. If excess savings cannot enter the entity in large quantities, the capital market will be the core spillover direction.
Yang Lingxiu, co-head of Guolian Securities Research Institute, said that residents' reduction of excess savings caused by real estate allocation is expected to bring incremental funds to the stock market. On the one hand, the policy level insists on "housing and not speculating". With the weakening of the housing market, the price-performance ratio of residents' allocation of real estate is decreasing, and it is difficult to enter the real estate market in large quantities due to excessive savings. The downward yield of superimposed wealth management products leads to the lack of investment channels for residents, or promotes the excessive savings funds of residents to enter the market. On the other hand, the current valuation of A-shares is in a low position, and the yield of stock bonds is at a high level, so equity assets are highly attractive.
Wang Kai, chief strategist of Guoxin Securities, believes that whether residents' excessive savings will promote the stock market does not depend on the absolute amount or proportion, but on when investors with high risk appetite enter the market.