Link:/question/43038338/answer/95598492

Source: Zhihu.

The copyright belongs to the author. Please contact the author for authorization for commercial reprinting, and please indicate the source for non-commercial reprinting.

China's economic problems are special and not special.

First, there is a wave of people (producers) who are particularly productive and are called to produce more than half of the world's steel and cement.

Second, a large wave of people (consumers) have special consumption desires. In their twenties, they have to have a house and a car and go out by high-speed plane, but these people have no money.

Third, there is a wave of people (rich people) who are particularly rich, and any aunt has been cheated by tens of millions. Just go abroad and buy Japanese ones. There are no toilets left.

The above three waves of people overlap, but the bigger difference is. Although they live in the same country and speak the same language, the economic/cultural gap between them is similar to that between Brazil, India and Japan. The problem now is that the first wave of producers produce too many things, the second wave of consumers have desires but no money, and the third wave of rich people don't consume (because the relative quantity is too small).

Best Policy 1.0 Version:

That's not easy? What are the advantages of this dynasty? There are institutional advantages! What are the advantages? Concentrate on doing great things!

The so-called concentration on doing great things is actually concentration on spending a lot of money. No matter what you focus on, it is a matter of spending money. So far, no one has succeeded in concentrating on making big money, not only in this dynasty, but also in human history at all times.

Anyway, why not concentrate the power of the government, collect heavy taxes (inflation is monetary tax), and let the first wave of producers produce high-speed rail buildings, subways and highways for the second wave of consumers? If you think it makes sense, congratulations, your IQ is the same as that of the vice president of the World Bank.

In the first few years, everyone approved of very ha. The first wave of people got paid, the second wave saw the prosperity of the court, and the third wave was rich and willful.

The fourth wave is very miserable. The fourth wave of people is the cornerstone of the economy and the most essential part of this system-export manufacturing, the driving force for all industrial upgrading and the origin of all GDP. They worked hard and were finally overwhelmed by heavy taxes. It is reflected in the rapid rise of labor costs, which exceeds the tolerable speed of industrial upgrading.

Zhongce version 2.0

I can't. When the manufacturing industry collapsed, everything was a cloud. Hens are delicious, so you can't kill them all. After all, laying eggs can last for a long time, benefiting future generations and lasting forever.

The new era and new atmosphere require tax reduction, especially seigniorage (inflation).

On the one hand, the imperial court stopped fighting corruption and controlled government expenditure.

On the other hand, I hope that the third wave of rich people will contribute to fill the gap between the first wave of producers and the second wave of consumers. This is called revitalizing the stock.

It's a good idea, but there is a door: the rich are rich, but not so stupid.

Are the Japanese willing to pay Brazil to produce trains for Indians? The Japanese won't like it.

Similarly, the third wave of people in China don't pay. A very small number of people who were stunned by propaganda basically died cleanly in the middle of 20 14. Because the second wave of people are too poor to afford housing and infrastructure beyond the level of South America/Southeast Asia. This kind of investment, not, make money!

It is always said in the news that China people prefer saving money to spending, but it is really wrong. First, the total deposit of North Korean residents is only over 50 trillion yuan, which is less than 1/3 of the government/state-owned enterprise debt. It is not enough to "revitalize" them. Second, there are fewer people belonging to the second wave. Third, North Korean residents, children's education, old-age care and so on must pay for themselves. Americans save less because other people's pension funds, medical insurance and education funds are calculated separately. North Korean residents are counting on this deposit as a coffin book and dare not spend it all.

I know that Zhihu is increasingly becoming a gathering place for civil servants, because the middle-income class in China is increasingly supported by civil servants. The above analysis does not include civil servants. Calm down, calm down.

Zhongce 2. 1 upgrade:

Here's the thing. Don't the third wave of rich people want to pay directly? Then combine the advantages and disadvantages of the best strategy and the middle strategy, you donate the money to the government, and the government will come forward to spend it for you. In this way, the government will not increase taxes, the first wave of producers will have jobs, the second wave of consumers will meet demand, and the fourth wave of elite manufacturing will not be overwhelmed by heavy taxes. What a wonderful world.

How did the government accept the third wave of money?

Open robbery? Oh, that's the last resort. The government loves the people as much as children. There is no need to classify landlords and capitalists as "people" at present. You can totally fool me. . . No, no, it's not a bluff, it's a big game. What clothes are exposed, starting with 4000 ancient poems, approving financial innovation. . . Show all the chess you can play.

The third wave of people rushed in about 1/4. Most of them died in the summer of 20 15.

Trick version 3.0

Whether you look at it or not, the gap between the first wave and the second wave is there. The third wave has lost confidence, and the fourth wave is still dying. What should we do?

Why not just ask the first wave not to be born? This is called supply-side reform. The main body of supply-side reform should have been tax reduction, but North Korea has institutional advantages and does not engage in that set. It's good to be laid off directly.

The problem is that the first wave and the second wave are not two people like Brazil-India. The first wave of people stopped production, and the second wave of people had weaker purchasing power. So in the first wave, more people need to stop production, so in the second wave, more people have no money. . . At the end of the spiral, the first wave of people stopped production completely, the second wave of people had no money at all, and finally production and consumption reached zero balance.

This is the situation in the second half of 20 15. Even the statistics of the Bureau of Statistics are not calm.