1. The crazy entry and exit of capital allocation is the culprit of the roller coaster trend of the stock index. In the more than 20 years of development of my country's stock market, every round of market trends has traces of capital promotion. Among these funds, if rational long-term funds enter the stock market, they will account for The higher the ratio, the longer the stock market will last and the trend will be milder.

On the contrary, it will rise and fall sharply.

So, what is the proportion of irrational funds in this round?

Let's take a look at the data. On June 8 this year, the stock market turnover hit a record high, with a single-day turnover exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan. The stock index rose by 2% that day, but there was no news on the fundamentals.

Looking back at the market that reached a high of 6,124 in 2007, the stock market turnover reached a record high on May 30, 2007, with a turnover of 271.2 billion yuan.

The trigger was the sudden announcement by the management to increase stamp duty in the early morning of May 30, which triggered panic selling by investors that day.

From 2007 to 2015, there were only 8 years. If the annual new capital in the stock market is calculated at 10% and assuming that the capital entering the market in 2007 is rational, then the maximum daily trading volume in 2015 should be around 600 billion, and the remaining 700 billion.

Billions of funds should be irrational funds, which account for 54% of the daily turnover.

So, where does this part of irrational funds come from? The author believes that most of this part of funds comes from capital allocation.

The complexity of the sources of capital allocation and the high cost of funds mean that this part of the funds must move in and out quickly, and are bloodthirsty, helping to rise and fall.

This type of funds is also contrary to encouraging long-term funds to enter the stock market, so the author believes that if this part of the funds is not completely eliminated, the stock market will never have peace.

2. The margin trading business contributed to the sharp rise and fall of the stock index. In the stock market, the short term is a zero-sum game. Some people lose money and others make money.

In the long run, investors can make money by paying corporate dividends or enjoying the increase in stock price valuations brought about by corporate development.

The cost of margin financing and securities lending means that this part of the funds can only participate in short-term speculation.

The annualized interest rate for financing is approximately 8.6%, and the annualized interest rate for securities lending is approximately 10.6%.

In the secondary market, the annual dividend rate of any stock will not exceed this ratio, and no one will be willing to raise long-term financing to wait for stock dividends.

Therefore, the profit model of financing must be to profit from the price difference of stocks in the short term.

Looking at securities lending again, securities lending loses money when the stock market rises, and when the stock market falls, there are no securities available, so securities lending loses its original function.

Therefore, the margin trading and securities lending business is the icing on the cake when it rises, but adds insult to injury when it falls.

Therefore, the author suggests that the targets of margin trading and securities lending should be gradually reduced until they are cancelled, or only institutional margin trading and securities lending should be allowed.

3. The passive redemption of the parent foundation of the tiered funds has caused the outflow of funds from the stock market and is also a factor in the decline of the stock index. When the stocks held by the tiered funds fall, the leverage of the tiered funds will increase, and the decline of the tiered funds will be much greater than

Stocks fell.

Therefore, when stocks fall, tiered funds become a hot potato, and holders redeem them one after another. The parent fund is forced to sell stocks, which provides impetus for the stock decline.

In addition, blindly participating in the speculation of graded funds will also have a heavy blow to the confidence of investors. Investors are relatively lacking in professional knowledge and do not understand graded funds. This can be seen from the discount of B-grade in military industry.

July 10th is the discount day for military grade B (150187). If you participate in the discount, you will lose more than 50%.

In this case, on July 9, Military Industry B Grade (150187) opened the limit, changing hands as high as 48%.

Why do some people fly into the flames? The reason is that they do not understand the rules of tiered funds.

Retail investors participating in these transactions may also define the stock market as a casino while their wealth disappears.

Therefore, these "innovative" products should also be canceled in the Chinese market where retail investors are the majority.

Of course, the decline of the stock index may also be related to hostile forces maliciously shorting stock index futures and the outflow of hot money. However, most of the inflows and outflows of such funds should go through capital allocation channels. Therefore, if the stock market's own system is improved, other noise will be automatically blocked.

Achieve your own healthy development.